Gen. Jon Hyten

WASHINGTON:  While it’s always a challenge to nail down just who will be nominated for top Pentagon jobs, Air Force Space Command leader Gen. John Hyten seems as close to a lock for Air Force Chief of Staff as you can get.

Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James has made clear her commitment to diversity in the top jobs, but high-flyer Gen. Lori Robinson, whom many thought had a shot at the service’s top uniformed job, appears almost certain to take the job as head of Northern Command. Currently commander of Pacific Air Forces, Robinson would be the first female Combatant Commander, giving the Obama White House at least one last high profile “minority” appointment. And it would take her out of the running for chief.

Gen. Lori Robinson

I spoke with more than two dozen officers and civilians about the next CSAF and this story is based on those conversations. Hyten, who is widely admired for his disciplined but accessible public persona, his big brain (he went to Harvard twice!) and his strategic approach to space warfighting, would be the first head of the Air Force so deeply immersed in all aspects of space — including acquisition. He would also be the first chief of staff never to have been a pilot. Gen. Norton Schwartz was the first Chief of Staff who had flown neither bombers nor fighters, but Schwartz had more than 4,000 hours as a pilot, having flown a range of Special Operations aircraft, including helicopters.

There was much whispering about the next chief during the Air Force Association’s winter conference last week. I asked Hyten about his chances and he replied cordially, saying he knew what he read in the media and heard from the rumor mill. I believe him. In a distant second place for the top Air Force job, observers put  Gen. Hawk Carlisle, the widely admired head of Air Combat Command.

That Hyten is not a fighter pilot would, in years past, have been considered a serious handicap. Now that’s reversed. Carlisle is an F-15 pilot, and has also flown C-17s. That, I heard during AFA, is believed to count against him with this administration, particularly with the civilian who leads the service. Why does being a pilot matter? Here’s what one former senior Air Force officer said in an email.

“The Secretary hates white, male fighter pilots… It’s a sophomoric and immature criteria… stereotyping at best, and harmful to the Service and Nation at worst, because exempting those individuals excludes the most experienced, capable, and visionary for the job,” this former officer writes. “The key criteria should be who is the best person for the job—not what weapon system they spent the first half of their career operating.  The service didn’t select ‘fighter pilots’ for the top job in the past. They choose the person with the best characteristics for the position. It just so happens that those are the same characteristics required to fly the most demanding weapon systems that the Service possesses.”

Gen. Hawk Carlisle

Having spoken with a wide array of senior Air Force officers for years, I can confirm that many of them believe James harbors deep suspicion of the motives of the uniformed service when they offer advice with which she disagrees. This seems to pervade the Obama White House, which has made very has made very clear on repeated occasions that professional military advice that contradicts what the White House thinks is not welcome and may be characterized as challenging civilian command of the military. (Perhaps the Harvard-lawyer heavy administration could become more comfortable with conflicting military advice if they thought of it as legal advice. Your client may hate it, but it’s good for him or her to know. You still get to choose what you’ll do.) Look at what happened to former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel when he and then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen, Martin Dempsey stuck to their guns on defense spending and whether to use force in Syria.

Does our former senior officer think Hyten can handle the job, even though he’s not a pilot?

“Hyten will make an excellent CSAF, he’s smart, savvy, and forward looking,” the former officer says. “His challenge will be addressing warfighting issues with the other service chiefs who posses decades of warfighting experience that he does not have.”

More importantly in the long run, I think Hyten’s selection could mark an important turning point for the Air Force. Space is key to a wider array of the military on a day-to-day basis than are fighter aircraft or bombers and has always been a highly prized but very separate part of the Air Force. While that separate culture offers certain benefits to the space community, it also means space is often not considered central to the Air Force budget or to its mission.

While this administration has lately embraced space and accepted the painful truth that space is now a key battlefield, a Chief of Staff who is a true space advocate could help better integrate his people with the rest of the service and demonstrate to everyone how truly important they and their missions are. Hyten’s nomination would also send a very clear signal to China and Russia — and to our fellow Americans — that the United States truly understands how important space is and values those who have mastered the domain.