GENEVA: The central riddle as we head to new talks here on Iran’s suspect nuclear program is that everything has changed, yet nothing has changed. Hopes have never been higher, but a deal is far from being done. September brought us a surprising “Iranian spring” in the crisis over fears Tehran seeks the bomb. The… Keep reading →

UNITED NATIONS: Iran’s charm offensive this week at the UN was spectacular. Iran went from being hardline and cantankerous to open and cooperative. The rogue state personified by former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became the good world citizen under new President Hassan Rouhani. The change in tone since Rouhani took office in August has been so… Keep reading →

UNITED NATIONS: The march towards a peaceful settlement in the Iranian nuclear crisis took an amazing step today when Iran agreed to a Thursday meeting that will bring together the foreign ministers of both the United States and Iran, the highest formal contacts between Iran and the United States since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Any potential… Keep reading →

WASHINGTON: Nuclear weapon accidents should worry everyone until they are contained and proven harmless. At the same time, we have to be rational about the risks. The latest example of how well those risks have been balanced comes from the Guardian, a very fine paper that I used to write for when I lived in… Keep reading →

Will Iran’s new president defuse the confrontation with the United States over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program? Hassan Rowhani, elected with a narrow 50.7 percent of the votes in Friday’s presidential election, inherits a dangerous stalemate. Iran is stonewalling on answering UN inspectors’ questions about possible military dimensions of its nuclear program, while talks with… Keep reading →

[updated Tuesday, March 6 with Gen. Mattis’s remarks to the House Armed Services Committee] CAPITOL HILL: The US should keep 13,600 troops in Afghanistan to advise and assist the Afghan forces after American combat brigades withdraw in 2014, about a quarter of the current troop level, said Central Command chief Gen. James Mattis, giving his personal recommendation — not the Administration’s final decision — after prodding from the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday. Rumored figures have been significantly lower. “We have to send a message of commitment,” declared Mattis, who will soon retire. But with the Navy halving its aircraft carrier presence in the Gulf and all the services cutting corners in expectation of a continued budget crunch, it’s getting harder to project resolve.

“A perceived lack of an enduring US commitment” is the biggest danger to American interests in the Central Command region, which sprawls from Egypt to Pakistan, Mattis told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday. While the drawdown in Afghanistan unnerves some allies, he said, “our budget ambiguity right now is probably the single greatest factor. I’m asked about it everywhere I go in the region.”

“Already, sequestration is having an operational impact in the CENTCOM area” with the indefinite postponement of the aircraft carrier USS Truman’s deployment to keep an eye on Iran, lamented SASC’s chairman, Carl Levin. Facing a funding shortfall from both the automatic cuts known as sequestration and the Continuing Resolution now funding the federal government I the absence of proper 2013 appropriations, Navy will keep Truman stateside, albeit ready for rapid deployment in a crisis.

WASHINGTON: Long-awaited talks between the world’s six most powerful nations and Iran are set for February 26 in the mountain city of Almaty in Kazakhstan. The question is, are the two sides ready to bridge the considerable rift dividing them and actually negotiate? This has not happened in a decade of diplomacy that started in… Keep reading →

WASHINGTON: Is 2013 the big year for Iran? Many think a decade of confrontation over Iran’s nuclear progress will finally boil down to a stark binary choice of living with an Iranian atomic bomb or having to bomb the Islamic Republic to stop this. Time magazine’s international guru, Fareed Zakaria, claims this is the year… Keep reading →

Yesterday, the House-Senate conference on the National Defense Authorization Act took steps to strengthen oversight of America’s nuclear arsenal, including reforms at the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration and new restrictions on the administration decommissioning more nuclear weapons. But there’s a deeper issue of whether our nukes still work as designed in the first… Keep reading →

UPDATE The United States and its five negotiating partners can’t decide how far to go in trying to entice Iran and time presses as Iran continues to amass significant nuclear stockpiles and capabilities. The Russians would like to offer sanctions relief, which is what the Iranians want. This would be in return for Iran ceasing… Keep reading →